These projections further illustrate the “regulatory gap” between announced commitments and adopted policies. When considering the need for additional action to realize Colombia’s climate ambitions, a critical missing element is supply-side regulations (SSRs). These are important policy tools because they set the future direction of the market for all automakers and in doing so provide the confidence for investments in new technology and infrastructure. SSRs can take the form of fuel efficiency standards, CO2 standards, or ZEV regulations. Of these three options, a ZEV regulation could be developed quickly and would be easier to implement than fuel efficiency or CO2 standards. However, ZEV regulations are not currently under discussion in Colombia, whereas fuel efficiency standards are actively being considered.
Although fuel efficiency standards are more complicated to implement than a ZEV regulation, they could be designed to meet Colombia’s ZEV targets while still providing an incentive for cost-effective ICE efficiency improvements. The European Union’s CO2 standards for cars and vans and heavy-duty vehicles are examples of SSRs that are stringent enough to accelerate ZEV uptake while allowing automakers the flexibility to deploy ICE technologies to help meet the targets as they ramp up ZEV uptake. If Colombia adopts fuel efficiency standards, it’s crucial to ensure these are stringent enough to meet its ZEV goals; setting weak standards that achieve only incremental ICE improvements or provide generous credits for ZEVs would leave a substantial regulatory gap.
Two-wheeler electrification represents an additional opportunity, as Colombia has not yet established targets for 100% ZEV sales as it has done for light- and heavy-duty vehicles. A ZEV regulation would be a logical choice for this rapidly growing segment as it could be electrified quickly if manufacturers offer competitively priced electric models.
The Colombian government has established four strategic axes for decarbonizing transportation: public policies, sustainable mobility and smart cities, reindustrialization of mobility, and multimodality. In addition to reducing emissions, implementing well-designed SSRs would also support Colombia’s reindustrialization agenda by providing market confidence and driving investments in vehicle supply and charging infrastructure. With decisive policy action, Colombia could become a leader in transportation decarbonization in Latin America while realizing the economic, environmental, and public health benefits of a cleaner vehicle fleet.
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